The Squeezed Middle: How Europe’s Shrinking Middle Class Shapes Our Politics In the North

Across Western Europe, politics is being reshaped by a powerful, destabilising force: the shrinking middle class. New research from the Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU Wien) shows that the fear of falling out of the middle class drives support for far-right parties, even when decline hasn’t yet occurred.

For the North of England, these findings resonate strongly. Economic restructuring, wage stagnation, and rising living costs have left many households feeling that their status and security could slip away at any moment. The “fear of falling” is not abstract - it is embedded in the social and economic fabric of the region.

Fear of Falling: The Invisible Pressure

The WU Wien study, drawing on data from 13 Western European countries between 2005 and 2018, finds that economic insecurity drives political behaviour. Low - and mid-skilled workers, as well as small business owners, face the highest risk of downward mobility. Between 2005 and 2018, the share of low-skilled and skilled workers in the middle class fell by 8.9 and 6 percentage points respectively, showing that remaining in the middle class is no longer guaranteed.

Dr Judith Derndorfer, one of the study’s authors, explains: “This erosion of social standing feeds status anxiety and resentment toward political elites and minorities - conditions under which the radical right thrives.”

Even without losing income or jobs, the anticipation of decline - seeing neighbours or friends struggle - is enough to influence political choices.

Northern England: Where Decline Feels Close

The North’s economic landscape amplifies this fear. While not everyone lives in deprivation, proximity to decline is stark. For example:

• 58% of England’s most deprived neighbourhoods are located in the North (North East, North West, Yorkshire & Humber).
• In Blackpool, 40% of neighbourhoods are in the country’s most deprived decile.
• Bradford West and East, Middlesbrough, and Liverpool Riverside rank among the most deprived constituencies nationally.

These conditions don’t just affect those at the very bottom; they create a regional context where middle-class households see what decline looks like and fear they are next. Jobs that once offered stable, middle-class prospects - in manufacturing, skilled trades, or local services - have been replaced by insecure, low-paid work. The pathway to financial stability and social status has narrowed.

From Economic Anxiety to Political Consequences

This fear of falling is shaping politics in the North. The region has long been seen as Labour heartland, but growing volatility in voting patterns reflects the pressures identified in Europe:

1. Status anxiety: Households that identify as middle class worry about losing income, security, or lifestyle.
2. Disillusionment with mainstream politics: Repeated government promises - from levelling-up to industrial regeneration - have often failed to materialise, leaving voters frustrated.
3. Visibility of decline: Deprivation and unemployment in neighbouring towns or wards make economic insecurity palpable.

The European research suggests that these conditions make voters more receptive to populist, right-wing messaging, which positions itself as a voice for those who feel “left behind".

Policy and the Path Forward

The WU Wien study also highlights that welfare systems shape economic insecurity: social-democratic countries have the lowest risk, while liberal systems - closer to the UK’s model - are most vulnerable.

For the North of England, this suggests that rebuilding middle-class stability is not just a social imperative, but a democratic one. Policies that provide secure employment, affordable housing, reliable transport, and strong public services could reduce fear, rebuild trust, and protect communities from the political consequences of insecurity.

Conclusion

The middle class is the backbone of stable democracy — and in the North of England, that backbone is under pressure. European research shows that fear of falling, even among households that remain above the poverty line, drives political behaviour and creates openings for radical parties. In regions where deprivation is visible and opportunity feels fragile, these fears are magnified.

Addressing economic fragility, rebuilding pathways to stability, and ensuring that the North’s middle class can feel secure again is not just about prosperity - it’s about safeguarding the region’s political future.

The WU Wien study is published in the journal Review of Income and Wealth.

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Header Image: Tomás Robertson